In the first half of 2025 (January–June) global housing sales displayed pronounced regional divergences, yet a cautious recovery with visible momentum in the luxury segment. Interest-rate paths, inflationary pressures and limited supply stood out as the core factors shaping market dynamics.
Headline Prices and Transaction Volumes
- Nominal gains, flat real prices: As of Q1 2025 global nominal house prices kept rising by 1% quarter on quarter. Real prices, adjusted for inflation, were flat, which indicates that gains largely reflected general inflation.
- Recovery in volumes: In Q1 2025 global real-estate transaction volume for traditional asset classes and development projects rose 3% year on year versus Q1 2024. Strong investment activity in the Americas and Asia-Pacific drove this increase, with the United States standing out.
- Luxury segment uptrend: In some markets, notably India, luxury home prices posted significant gains of up to 44% in H1 2025, supported by modern-featured new projects, early-stage pricing advantages and strategic locations.
Regional Performance and Differentiation
The first half of 2025 saw marked regional splits:
- Asia-Pacific: Transaction volume increased 20% on robust investment activity.
- India: The market stayed strong. Premium home sales trended higher, sales of homes above INR 10 million rose 17%. In Mumbai, prices for new and under-construction luxury homes rose 1% and 44% year on year respectively.
- Singapore: New private home sales fell 66.5% q/q in Q2 2025 to 1,129 units. Private home prices still rose 0.5% q/q, more moderately than the 0.8% rise in the prior quarter. New-home sales totaled 4,504 units in H1 2025.
- China: Despite its large share of global housing value, the market remained on a downward trajectory.
- Americas: Stood out with a 37% increase in transaction volume. In the United States certain states showed resilience with signs of recovery.
- Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA): Transaction volume rose 41%.
- Germany: New-apartment prices per square meter rose 2% y/y, existing-apartment prices rose 3% y/y. Average residential rents also increased. Regulatory clarity, lower construction costs and faster economic growth were seen as positives.
- Portugal, Norway and Spain: Strong quarterly price gains in nominal and real terms (nominal up 5.2%, 3.2% and 2.8% respectively).
- United Kingdom: Nominal prices continued to grow 2% q/q.
- Egypt: Despite inflation and rising construction costs, the market surged in H1 2025. Unit prices rose 20%–30% versus end-2024. The top 10 developers generated roughly EGP 290 billion in combined Q1 2025 sales, up 23% y/y, about USD 5.89 billion.
- Luxembourg and Italy: Prices declined in real terms by 2.8% and 1.3% respectively.
Key Trends and Drivers
Leading forces in H1 2025 included:
- Rates and inflation: Central banks were expected to start or continue cutting rates, yet the Fed’s slow pace and inflation risks weighed on sentiment. Expectations were for more aggressive cuts in Europe and the UK.
- Supply constraints: Shortages deepened in sought-after segments in North America and Europe. Fewer new starts, high construction costs and financing hurdles weakened the supply side.
- Operational value creation: With higher capital costs and the appeal of fixed-income alternatives, investors shifted from passive holding toward strategic acquisitions focused on operational value.
- Sustainability and amenity-rich living: Buyer preferences moved toward sustainable, secure communities with modern comforts. High-income individuals favored green space, security and comprehensive on-site amenities.
- Resilience of luxury housing: Despite macro swings the luxury segment stayed resilient. In emerging economies luxury homes served as a hedge against FX volatility and inflation.
- Digitalization and technology integration: Use of digital tools in search, purchase and leasing kept expanding. Demand increased for tech-integrated homes such as those with AI-enabled security and automated lighting.
Conclusion
H1 2025 remained shaped by interest rates and inflation, yet featured regional signs of recovery with notable momentum in luxury housing. Supply shortages, construction costs and shifting consumer preferences continued to shape the market. Investors and buyers acted more selectively and strategically in this complex environment.