The second 2025 wave of the Housing Sector Expectations Survey conducted by the Association of Housing Developers and Investors (KONUTDER) together with NielsenIQ Türkiye has been released.
The most striking finding is that all members foresee a decline in mortgage interest rates. In parallel with this strong expectation, the share of respondents anticipating an increase in credit-backed home sales rose to 76%, becoming the year’s most notable result. In addition, 68% of members expect a rise in first-hand (new) home sales, while 72% foresee prices increasing.
KONUTDER Chairman Ziya Yılmaz evaluated the survey results, drawing attention to the sector’s current issues, interest-rate expectations, and proposed solutions to improve access to housing.
Ziya Yılmaz: “Lower rates and favorable credit terms will strengthen access to housing”
“The Central Bank’s announced 250-basis-point rate cut shows that long-elevated interest rates have begun to fall, and it is an important step toward restoring confidence in the housing market. For this to be lasting, it is crucial that rates come down regularly and swiftly to reasonable levels. In our survey, all members anticipated lower rates ahead, which indicates that policy decisions align with the sector’s pulse. Looking at sector figures, the average share of credit-backed sales in the first eight months of 2016–2020 was 31%, but over the last five years this has fallen to around 17%, and similarly the share of first-hand sales declined from 45% to 30%. With lower credit rates and the removal of BRSA credit constraints, both credit-backed sales and first-hand sales will increase.”
“In the coming period, continued rate cuts in line with the downward trend in inflation and the targets of the Medium-Term Program will ease access to housing and give momentum to credit-backed sales. One of the most striking findings of our survey is our members’ strong expectation in this direction. In parallel, for branded developers to focus on accessible projects, land costs must also come down. If cost-effective public land is supplied and steps are taken to support access to credit, a more balanced and sustainable housing market will emerge.”
The KONUTDER Housing Sector Expectations Survey Report lists branded developers’ expectations and projections as follows:
Peak Expectation for Lower Mortgage Rates
100% of KONUTDER members expect interest rates to fall within the next six months. This stands out as the strongest consensus in the survey’s history. The rate-cut expectation was recorded as the key factor shaping market direction.
Strong Increase Expected in Credit-Backed Sales
The expectation of lower rates directly translates into credit-backed sales. The share of respondents expecting an increase in credit-backed sales rose from 47.6% to 76%. Thus, credit-backed transactions are expected to energize the market through the remainder of 2025.
Upward Trend in First-Hand Home Sales
68% of KONUTDER members expect first-hand home sales volumes to rise over the next six months. Although slightly below the 71.4% recorded in the first half, the expectation of higher sales remains strong among members. With lower rates, an acceleration in upward sales momentum is anticipated.
Expectation of Rising Home Prices
Among KONUTDER members, the expectation that prices will continue to increase persists. While 72% expect prices to rise, 28% think they will remain unchanged.
Upward Pressure on Housing Costs
80% of members foresee total costs rising in the next six months. Increasing costs remain a factor that directly feeds into sales prices.
Labor and Material Cost Pressures
The share expecting higher labor costs stands at 88%, while 76% expect an increase in material costs. This once again underscores production costs as the sector’s most significant risk factor.
Flat Outlook for Housing Production
60% of members expect the number of housing units produced to remain the same over the next six months. With only 28% anticipating growth in output, the sector’s production appetite appears to be entering a phase of stabilization.
Ongoing Appetite for New Projects
Meanwhile, 68% of KONUTDER members reported having new projects they plan to launch for sales and construction within the next six months. Although this ratio has declined compared to the first half of the year, it indicates continued investment. Despite a cautious stance, the expectation of lower rates is keeping interest in new projects alive.
Robust Expectations in Urban Transformation
Urban transformation remains an important area of production for the sector. More than half of members (64%) foresee increased activity in this area in the coming period—standing out for both meeting supply needs and addressing earthquake risk.
Rent Increase Expectations
80% of members expect rents to rise in the next six months, pointing to continued pressure on rental costs.
Muted Outlook for Sales to Foreign Buyers
80% of members expect sales to foreigners to remain the same in the coming period. With 16% anticipating a decline, there are as yet no strong signs of a rebound in this area.
The survey—conducted by NielsenIQ Türkiye with senior executives from 25 KONUTDER member firms—was compiled using data collected in the second quarter of 2025 (August 2025) and includes projections for the third and fourth quarters.