The year 2024 was complex for global housing sales, with pronounced regional divergences. High interest rates and global economic uncertainty generally weighed on demand while some regions showed signs of recovery and price increases.
Overview and Price Trends
- Global decline (real prices): In Q3 2024 global real house prices, net of consumer price inflation, fell by 1.6% year on year. This decline stemmed from notable drops in several large emerging market economies, yet most countries still recorded increases in real house prices. In Q4 the decline also stood at 1.6%.
- Nominal increase: In nominal terms, i.e., without inflation adjustment, global house prices rose by 1.8% year on year in Q3 2024 and by 2.1% in Q4.
- Long-term perspective: Prices remained 21% above post-GFC (2007–2009) levels, staying elevated in the long run.
- Market value: The global value of residential real estate reached USD 286.9 trillion at end-2024. Although this reflected a 2.7% annual decline, it still marked a 19% increase versus 2019, underscoring the rise since the pandemic.
Regional Divergences and Notable Markets
Significant regional decoupling characterized housing markets in 2024:
- Advanced economies (AEs): Real house prices rose by 0.5% year on year in Q3 2024 and by 1.0% in Q4, showing a mild recovery, the strongest since Q2 2022.
- Euro area and United Kingdom: Real prices stabilized or edged up for the first time since 2022 (up 1.9% in the euro area and 1.0% in the UK). Spain and Portugal saw increases of around 9%, Greece 4%, Italy 3%, while Germany stabilized after a long decline.
- Emerging market economies (EMEs): Real house prices fell by 3.1% in Q3 2024 and by 3.5% in Q4, driven by several large EMEs.
- Asia: Real prices declined by 5.3% (Q3) and 5.7% (Q4), the main driver of the EME downturn. China saw sharp drops, whereas India and Vietnam recorded gains supported by population growth and reforms. Despite accounting for 29% of global housing value, China posted a 5.2% annual decline in 2024.
- Türkiye: Real prices fell sharply, down 12% year on year. In nominal terms, however, home sales rose by 20.6% in 2024 to 1,478,025 units. New-home sales increased by 27.6% while mortgaged sales fell by 10.8%.
- Latin America: Moderate growth led by Mexico (about 4%) and Brazil (2%).
- Central and Eastern Europe: Real prices rose by 1.9% overall, with notable gains in Bulgaria (16%) and Poland (5%).
- Canada and South Africa: Real prices declined at milder rates.
- United States: A mixed picture. In December 2024 existing-home sales rose 9.3% year on year to 4.24 million units. The median existing-home price rose 5.7% year on year in April 2024 to USD 407,600.
Key Market Trends and Drivers
The principal forces shaping global housing in 2024 were:
- Interest-rate volatility: Rates dominated the year. Despite early expectations for declines, spring brought increases that discouraged buyers and slowed price gains. Elevated rates became a persistent drag on affordability.
- Move away from dense urban cores: The pandemic-era shift from large cities to smaller towns and suburbs persisted, lifting suburban prices and boosting demand for single-family homes.
- Digitalization: Home search and purchase processes increasingly adopted 3D tours, drone videos and virtual viewings. Fully digital transactions grew, especially for international buyers.
- Housing supply constraints: Fewer building permits in many cities and tighter financing conditions kept supply limited. High land and construction costs deterred new projects, capping future supply.
- Erosion of purchasing power: Because of high rates, buyers could afford about 40% less living space compared with 2021, weighing on transaction volumes.
- End of the correction: Entering 2024, many expected the broader real-estate correction to be largely complete. As the year progressed, activity and sentiment were expected to improve.
Conclusion
In 2024 global housing operated under the shadow of high rates and uncertainty, yet with a regionally uneven recovery. While real prices fell overall, nominal prices continued to rise and most countries recorded gains in local-currency terms. As supply shortages and affordability challenges persisted, trends such as digitalization and movement away from dense urban centers shaped the market.